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Subadditivity effect : ウィキペディア英語版 | Subadditivity effect
The subadditivity effect is the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.〔Baron, J. (in preparation). Thinking and deciding, 4th edition. New York: Cambridge University Press.〕 == Example == For instance, subjects in one experiment judged the probability of death from cancer in the United States was 18%, the probability from heart attack was 22%, and the probability of death from "other natural causes" was 33%. Other participants judged the probability of death from a natural cause was 58%. Natural causes are made up of precisely cancer, heart attack, and "other natural causes," however, the sum of the latter three probabilities was 73%, and not 58%. According to Tversky and Koehler (1994) this kind of result is observed consistently.〔Tversky, A., & Koehler, D.J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextentional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547–567.〕
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